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warm tips: if you need the original document, you can log in and search on the PC terminal to download the report. (1) steel structure represents the new development mode of building structure in the future steel structure has the advantages of green environmental protection and is an important development trend of building technology. According to the structural system of prefabricated building, prefabricated building can be divided into precast concrete structure, steel structure and wood structure. Steel structure is beam steel, steel column, steel truss and other components made of section steel and steel plate. The structure is usually connected by welding seam, bolt or rivet, and rust removal and rust prevention processes such as siliconization, pure manganese phosphating, water washing and drying, galvanizing are adopted. Due to the advantages of high strength, light weight, good overall rigidity and strong deformation ability, steel structure is especially suitable for the construction of large-span, ultra-high and super heavy buildings, including large-scale industrial plants, buildings, office buildings, highway and railway bridges, offshore oil drilling platforms, etc., and is expected to become the mainstream structure of prefabricated buildings in the future. According to the classification of building use, steel structure can be divided into high-rise steel structure, plate and shell steel structure, industrial plant steel structure and light steel structure. Among them, light steel structure develops rapidly in China, and is widely used in shopping malls, residential buildings and other fields. China already has the material and technical basis for the development of steel structure. China's crude steel output has been increasing since 1996, when the crude steel output exceeded 100 million tons for the first time. countryThe main properties of carbon steel, alloy steel and H-beam steel have met the requirements of steel structure construction. At the same time, with the development of domestic logistics, the transportation cost of steel structure is reduced, which overcomes the dilution of enterprise profit caused by long-distance transportation, which provides the material basis for the development of building steel structure in China. From the perspective of the technical basis for the development of steel structures, industrial standards have been issued for ordinary steel structures, steel structures for buildings, steel structures for high-rise civil buildings, steel structure welding and high-strength bolt connection, steel and concrete combination, concrete-filled steel tube structures and steel reinforced concrete structures, and relevant steel structure specifications are constantly updated and improved, It provides the necessary technical basis for the application of building steel structure system. compared with traditional buildings, steel structure has advantages in function, design and construction. First of all, steel structure building has high strength, high rigidity and light weight. The steel structure takes steel as the frame, with light wall panel as the enclosure and internal partition wall, so the construction quality of steel structure is reduced by nearly 30%. Secondly, steel structure building has superior seismic performance. Due to the good ductility of steel and light weight of steel structure building, seismic wave force can be eliminated better. According to the data, the steel structure is adopted for medium height buildings, the weight of the structure is reduced by 1 / 3, the earthquake action is reduced by 30% - 40%, and the unit area load on the ground is reduced by more than 25%. In addition, the construction period of steel structure building is short. Due to the factory production of steel members and external wall panels, the construction period can be shortened to 1 / 3 or 1 / 3 of the concrete structure/2, so as to improve the capital turnover rate. Compared with reinforced concrete building, the construction period of 30-50 storey steel structure project can be shortened by about 8-12 months. With the progress of technology, the construction speed can be accelerated. Finally, the steel structure building has strong comprehensive benefits, and meets the requirements of energy-saving and environmental protection buildings. Steel structure construction site operation is small, environmental pollution is small, the unit building area of materials is less, steel can be recycled and reused. The steel structure building can increase the use area by 5% - 8%, the daily energy consumption is 20% of the conventional building, and the on-site installation waste only accounts for 1% of the total construction amount. the steel structure construction needs less manpower, which can relieve the labor cost pressure of traditional construction industry. On the one hand, with the gradual disappearance of demographic dividend, the proportion of China's labor force (15-64 years old) has continued to decline since 2011; the proportion of migrant workers engaged in construction industry has continued to decline since 2015. Moreover, the proportion of migrant workers with college degree or above has increased steadily in China, and the traditional construction work is difficult to attract migrant workers to employment due to the high physical consumption. On the other hand, the income of migrant workers in China's construction industry has increased steadily, with a compound growth rate of 12% from 2009 to 2017, and the labor cost pressure of the construction industry is increasing. Under different prefabrication rates, the labor consumption of prefabricated building is reduced by 50% ~ 70% compared with the traditional cast-in-place building. The amount of labor in the construction site of prefabricated building is significantly reduced in terms of reinforcement binding and formwork support. A large number of prefabricated components on site are constructed by dry method, which greatly reduces the on-site wet operation and saves peopleLabor cost, labor intensity of construction personnel is also weakened. compared with the traditional cast-in-place concrete building, the steel structure assembly mechanization degree is higher, and the construction period is shortened by more than half. Steel structure technical specification is perfect, design software is complete, component size is accurate, design and construction is more efficient, steel structure component versatility and interchangeability is strong, adapt to assembly construction, site assembly speed is fast, construction period is short, is a kind of construction technology with the highest degree of industrialization. Taking the 30 storey fine decoration project as an example, the parts and components are processed in the factory and assembled on site. The water and electricity and interior decoration are carried out alternately in the main construction stage. The construction speed is fast. A 1000 square meter residence can be completed in 20 days and five workers. in prefabricated buildings, PC structure has been popularized earlier, but there are still many constraints compared with steel structure. At present, PC structure is widely used in prefabricated buildings in China, but there are many deficiencies in PC structure system in engineering practice. First of all, because the PC frame joints are connected with mortar riveted steel bars, the joint connection process is complex and the accuracy is high, so it is difficult to control the quality of grouting holes, which affects the quality safety and seismic performance of buildings. Secondly, the structure of PC preform is heavy and all materials are factory produced, which reduces the transportation radius and increases the manufacturing and transportation costs. In addition, although the number of wet operations is less than that of cast-in-place buildings, the PC components and cast-in-place components need cast-in-place concrete after assembly and connection, and the joint formwork is complex, the total volume of joints is not much, but a large number of them are neededManual processing node. After the cast-in-place of beam slab composite layer is completed, the construction of the upper layer can only be carried out after the components form the overall structure, and the speed is still limited. Fabricated steel structure can overcome the shortcomings of PC structure, or will become the main development direction of building industrialization and housing industrialization. (2) the policy opens up the space for the steel structure industry, and the industry development may continue to accelerate since 2016, the state has vigorously supported the development of steel structure. In 2016, the opinions on resolving excess capacity of the iron and steel industry and realizing the development out of difficulties proposed that "promote the application of steel structure buildings, carry out the pilot project of steel structure construction popularization and application, and greatly increase the application ratio of steel structure" in combination with the implementation of shantytowns transformation, dangerous house reconstruction and earthquake resistant and comfortable housing project. The steel industry planning requires to accelerate the promotion and application of steel structure buildings, increase the proportion of steel used in buildings from 10% in 2016 to more than 25%, and strive to increase the steel consumption of steel structures from 50 million tons to more than 100 million tons. In 2017, dozens of industrial policies on prefabricated buildings were implemented in China. At the same time, relevant evaluation standards, technical specifications and engineering valuation consumption quota standards for prefabricated buildings were successively issued. Among them, "opinions on promoting the sustainable and healthy development of the construction industry" clearly puts forward "strive to use about 10 years to make the proportion of prefabricated buildings in new buildings reach 30%"; in the action plan for prefabricated buildings in the 13th five year plan, the proportion of prefabricated buildings in Newly-built buildings in 2020 will reach more than 15%,Among them, more than 20% of the key areas are promoted, more than 15% are actively promoted, and more than 10% are encouraged to promote; the "construction industry development plan" of the Ministry of housing and urban rural development puts forward the development goals of building energy conservation and green building, and by 2020, the proportion of prefabricated building area to new building area will reach 15%, actively and steadily promote steel structure residence. the Ministry of housing and urban rural development clearly encourages the development of prefabricated steel structure buildings, and the application of prefabricated steel structures in residential buildings will further open the industry space. In December 2018, at the national housing and urban rural construction work conference, the Minister of housing and urban rural development proposed to vigorously develop prefabricated buildings such as steel structures in 2019, actively resolve the imbalance between supply and demand of building materials and labor, and accelerate the improvement of prefabricated building technology and standard system. At present, domestic public building steel structure has been very mature, mainly in hospitals, schools and other large-scale infrastructure projects. In March 2019, the official website of the Ministry of housing and urban rural development issued the notice on printing and distributing the key work points of the construction market supervision department of the Ministry of housing and urban rural development in 2019, pointing out that the pilot construction of steel structure prefabricated housing will be carried out, the implementation of pilot projects will be promoted, and the establishment of a mature steel structure prefabricated residential construction system will be promoted. In addition to the advantages of stability, environmental protection and recycling, prefabricated steel structure building can also hide steel in the people and effectively solve the imbalance between supply and demand of building materials. With the pilot of residential steel structure construction, as well as affordable housing, prefabricated housing construction and rural dilapidated housing reconstruction, relocation of poverty alleviation projects using steel structure assembly construction mode, the industry logic is facing remodeling, and the future development space is broad. the monetization policy of shed reform is tightened, and the resettlement housing will open up the demand of steel structure fabricated market. In October 2018, the executive meeting of the State Council deployed to promote the transformation of shantytowns, in which it was required to adjust and improve the monetized resettlement policy for shantytowns. For cities and counties with insufficient inventory of commercial housing and high pressure of house price rise, the preferential policy of monetized resettlement should be cancelled as soon as possible, which means that some cities whose house prices are divorced from the fundamentals will tighten the monetary resettlement policy and adopt the resettlement housing policy instead. With the decline of monetized resettlement proportion in shed reform this year, the demand for resettlement housing will rise. Steel structure promotion in most provinces is mainly in resettlement housing and security housing, so it will stimulate the demand for fabricated steel structure. (1) China's steel structure output in 2020 or more than 100 million tons in industrial developed countries, steel structure accounts for 20% - 30% of steel production. The development of steel industry is an important prerequisite for the development of steel structure industry. According to the data of developed countries, after the steel industry matures, the steel structure building will enter a rapid development stage. From the absolute number of steel output, due to the early industrialization of the United States and Japan, the steel output has been in the top three in the world in the past decade, and the steel structure industry has also developed vigorously, with construction steel accounting for 45% - 55% of its steel output. From the perspective of steel consumption / steel output, after the steel structure enters the mature stage, the steel structure output tends to be stable, accounting for about 20% ~ 30% of the steel output. In developed countries such as the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom and Australia, the ratio is more than 30%, while in China, steel production tends to be stableThe structure output is less than 10% of the crude steel output. China's steel structure output may be 80-142 million tons, with an average annual compound growth rate of 9% - 26%. Since 1996, the crude steel output in China broke through the 100 million ton mark for the first time, and the crude steel output has been increasing continuously. In recent years, the crude steel output has been basically maintained at 800 million to 900 million tons, which has been in the forefront of the world for 22 consecutive years up to 2018. According to the different combinations of crude steel output and steel structure output proportion, we calculate according to optimistic (800 million tons / 25%), neutral (775 million tons / 17.5%) and pessimistic (750 million tons / 15%); according to the scatter fitting of the ratio of construction steel to crude steel production in 2013-2016, the construction steel consumption in 2020 is predicted to be 5.7/5.52/534 million tons, thus the steel structure output is 1.42/0 97 / 80 million tons. Referring to the annual steel structure output data of China Steel Structure Association, China's steel structure output in 2016 is 57.2 million tons. If the steel structure output in 2020 is 1.42/0.97/0.80 billion tons, the average annual compound growth rate will be 9%, 14% and 26% respectively. (2) the potential steel structure demand of new residential buildings and shed renovation is large the steel structure residential system in Europe and Australia is developed. Sweden, Finland, Denmark and other countries have been formedA considerable scale of industrial steel structure residential system. Among them, Sweden's steel structure industry is the most developed, and the prefabricated component rate of light steel structure residence reaches 95%. Its light steel structure residential production is the largest in the world, and the steel structure products are supplied to European countries. In Australia, cold-formed thin-walled light-weight steel system is the main steel structure building, and the construction amount of steel structure construction accounts for about 50% of all new residential buildings. in Japan, 71% of residential buildings use steel structures. Due to frequent earthquakes, Japan began to study and develop steel structure residential buildings at the beginning of the 20th century. More than 1 / 3 of the houses use steel structures, especially in residential buildings. Up to the end of 1990s, 18% of the prefabricated houses in Japan are made up of wood structure, 11% of concrete structure and 71% of steel structure. Among them, most of them are low-rise independent houses, and low-rise small-scale houses using light-weight steel have been systematized. the market share of steel structure housing in the United States has exceeded 40%. According to the American Iron and Steel Association white paper statistics, steel construction materials market share has been stable at around 50% for many years. According to the estimation of AISI in the United States, in 1994, there were 50000 to 75000 households using steel structures in the United States, and 250000 in 2000. In 1996, the number of light steel structure residential buildings in the United States accounted for 20%, while that in Canada accounted for about 30%. Since the late 1990s, the multi-storey light steel frame residential buildings have developed rapidly in North America. At present, the market share of steel structure residential buildings has exceeded 40%. in China, the proportion of steel structure buildings is only 5%, and the proportion of steel structure residential buildings is lower. As of 2016, steel structure system accounts for only 5% of China's civil building structure system, and steel structure buildings are only concentrated in high-rise, super high-rise buildings, large space public buildings and industrial buildings. Steel structure is rarely used in high-rise public buildings such as ordinary office buildings, schools, hospitals, and low-rise, multi-storey and high-rise residential buildings. According to the data of China Association of building metal structures, among the steel structure projects completed in 2016, commercial real estate, stadiums and workshops accounted for 74.5%, infrastructure construction such as bridges and transportation hubs accounted for 18.2%, and residential buildings only accounted for 4.1%. In recent two years, it has made great development in highway and bridge, but the application proportion in residential building is still low. With the gradual implementation of steel structure residential policy, residential steel structure building is expected to further develop in the future. floor mounted fabricated steel structures account for 16% of the total number of prefabricated buildings. According to the "report on analysis and investment decision-making of China's prefabricated building steel structure industry from 2018 to 2024", there were 41 prefabricated concrete projects, 19 fabricated steel structure buildings, 4 timber structure buildings and 54 component production projects in 2016. under the assumption of 20%, 30% and 40% steel structure ratio of newly started residential buildings, there may be 25-61 million tons of steel structure demand for newly built residential buildings in China. According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, in 2018, the housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 8.223 billion square meters, including 5.7 billion square meters of residential construction area, accounting for 69.32%. The newly started area of housing is 2.093 billion square meters, of which the newly started residential area is 1.534 billion square meters, accounting for 73.25%. According to the survey, the steel consumption of ordinary residential buildings is about 30-40 kg / m2, and the steel consumption of steel structure residential buildings is about 80-100 kg / m2. Although the promotion of steel structure residential buildings is still in the initial stage, referring to the developed countries in Europe and the United States, a large proportion of steel structure buildings will be used in the long-term construction. Under the assumption that 20%, 30% and 40% of the steel structure new buildings account for the proportion, China's steel structure will live in the residential area every year There may be 25-61 million tons of steel structure demand in housing. under the assumption of 10%, 20% and 30% steel structure ratio of the housing transformed from shed, the transformation of shantytowns is expected to bring about 4-12 million tons of steel structure increment. According to the notice of the Ministry of housing and urban rural development on printing and distributing the key work points of the construction market supervision department of the Ministry of housing and urban rural development in 2019, the pilot project of steel structure prefabricated housing construction will be carried out to promote the implementation of the pilot projectIn the process of poverty alleviation and relocation, it is clear that a certain proportion of engineering projects adopt steel structure assembly construction mode. From 2018 to 2020, China will implement a three-year plan for the renovation of new sheds, with a total of 15 million units to be renovated, and 5.8 million units are planned to be started in 2018. Assuming that the average annual number of housing units converted from shed to shed is 4.6 million from 2019 to 2020, the average area of monetized housing for shed reform is approximately 85.1 m2. Assuming that the proportion of steel structure buildings is 10%, 20% and 30% respectively, it is estimated that the steel structure demand will be 400%- 12 million tons. the revenue scale of steel structure plate has reached a new record, and the net profit attributable to the parent company has maintained a rapid growth in recent years. From 2009 to 2015, the business income of steel structure plate has been kept between 2.3-2.9 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to parent company was maintained at about 100 million yuan. The profit situation of steel structure plate did not change significantly. Since 2016, the growth rate of revenue of the plate has changed from negative to positive and has reached a record high. In 2017, the operating revenue reached 3.923 billion yuan, and the growth rate of revenue reached 21.26%. The net profit attributable to the parent company has maintained a continuous growth since 2015, increasing from 104 million yuan to a historical high of 212 million yuan, and the growth rate of net profit attributable to parent company reached 42.81% in 2017. The continuous high-speed growth of steel structure plate profit scale indicates that the plate has ushered in an upward boom and the profit space of the plate has achieved a breakthrough. in terms of individual stocks, Hangxiao steel structure, Honglu steel structure and Southeast grid structure ranked first. In 2018, the revenue scale of Q3 southeast grid, Seiko steel structure and Honglu steel structure ranked first. Among them, the revenue scale of southeast grid was 6.178 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 14.97%, which was mainly due to the company's transformation to EPC business, resulting in the rapid growth of contract amount. Jinggong steel structure's revenue was 5.582 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 20.25%, which was mainly due to the company's continuous development of green integrated construction business while focusing on the traditional business field. The revenue scale of Honglu steel structure was 5.163 billion yuan, with an increase of 47.62%, which was caused by the gradual release of production capacity and benefits of the new production base and the steady development of the general contracting business of prefabricated steel structure construction. In 2018, the net profit scale of Hangxiao steel structure, Honglu steel structure and Southeast grid structure was ranked first, with 428 million yuan, 333 million yuan and 150 million yuan respectively. in 2017, the amount of new orders signed by the plate reached a record high, and Honglu steel structure, Fuhuang steel structure and other companies grew rapidly. From 2010 to 2016, the newly signed orders of steel structure plate have been maintained between 20 billion yuan and 27 billion yuan each year. Since 2017, it has rapidly increased by 40% to 38.4 billion yuan, creating a historical high, thus verifying the steel structureThe market space of the industry has been expanded, and the scale of enterprise profits has been significantly improved. From the individual stock level, the new order amount of Honglu steel structure, Jinggong steel structure and Fuhuang steel structure increased rapidly, which were 100%, 46.25% and 46.13% respectively. The absolute value of new order amount of Jinggong steel structure, Honglu steel structure and Southeast grid structure was higher, which were 10.243 billion yuan, 9.007 billion yuan and 8.794 billion yuan respectively. the net profit rate of plate sales and the net profit of per ton steel structure have increased year by year. Since 2015, the net profit rate of plate sales has increased year by year, from 3.66% to 5.41%, exceeding the highest point in 2011, and the highest growth rate during the period reached 25.45%. The rapid recovery of net sales interest rate indicates the improvement of industry prosperity and the company's profitability has gone out of the previous low point. The net profit of steel structure plate per ton of steel structure has increased year by year since 2013, from 197.95 yuan per ton in 2012 to 557.30 yuan per ton in 2017, with the highest growth rate of 49.89%, indicating that the profitability of the plate has been continuously improved. the overall cost rate of the board decreased due to the scale effectTrends. Since 2015, the sales expense rate of the sector has been declining year by year, from 2.17% to 1.91%. In 2015, the management expense rate reached the highest 7% in recent years, mainly due to the rapid increase of R & D expenses of several companies in the plate. However, with the expansion of production capacity and the growth of revenue, the expense rate began to decline year by year. The financial expense ratio reached the highest 3% in recent years in 2014, and then began to decrease year by year to the level of 2% in 2017. Through the trend of the proportion of the three fees in the operating income, we can see that the impact of the overall cost of the steel structure plate on the profit is weakening, and the profitability of the companies in the plate is increasing. the rapid increase of R & D expenses of southeast grid structure and Fuhuang steel structure led to the rise of management cost rate. By comparing the three fee rates within the board, we find that they are all in the same lower level range. From the sales expense rate, several major steel structure companies are on a downward trend, indicating the scale effect of the company. From the perspective of management cost rate, the management cost rate of southeast grid structure and Fuhuang steel structure increased by 17% and 4% respectively in 2017, which are the only two companies with positive growth, mainly due to the rapid growth of R & D expenses of the two companies. From the financial cost rate point of view, Fuhuang steel structure due to highThe interest expense of the company leads to the rapid rise of the company's financial expense rate. the average asset liability ratio of the sector showed a downward trend, asset quality was continuously optimized and the anti risk ability was strengthened. From 2009 to 2017, the average asset liability ratio showed a downward trend, from 74.05% to 51.90%. The decline of asset liability ratio effectively improves the asset quality of the company, and helps to enhance the anti risk ability under the background of macro-economy at home and abroad. From the perspective of the company's asset ratio, the main asset liability ratio is about 60%. the cash ratio of the sector began to rise gradually, and the revenue quality of most companies was better. From 2009 to 2015, the cash collection ratio of steel structure plate showed a downward trend, which decreased from 81% to 59%. The book income of the plate was higher than that of the second year, and the realization income was low. The increase of accounts receivable affected the quality of corporate bond assets. Since 2016, the cash collection ratio of the sector began to rise continuously and narrowly, indicating that the company's current income liquidity has been enhanced, which is also an industryOne of the performance of the improvement of business climate. As most of the steel structure companies are private enterprises, the problems of financing and arrears of accounts have a profound impact on the business status of steel structure companies. At the national regular meeting at the end of 2018, the premier stressed to carry out special debt clearing action to effectively solve the problem of government departments and large state-owned enterprises defaulting on private enterprises. It is expected that the cash collection ratio of steel structure plate will be further increased in 2019. (I) investment suggestions based on the above steel structure future demand changes and foreign development experience, we judge that the high-quality steel structure production company will have a broad profit space in the future, and the relevant targets are as follows. Honglu steel structure: the company's main business includes steel structure and its supporting products processing, steel structure industrial building, production and sales of new building materials products, fabricated high-rise steel structure residence, customized foreign-style house, high-end intelligent stereo garage manufacturing and operation, industrial real estate investment and construction operation, green steel structure real estate development, etc., and its products are sold to many countries and regions around the world. Now it has the first grade qualification of general contracting of housing construction, the first grade of special installation of steel structure, the special qualification of steel structure manufacturing, and the business qualification certificate of the Ministry of Commerce of the people's Republic of China. Fuhuang steel structure: the company is a specialized steel structure enterprise integrating steel structure design, production and installation, and its main business is the design, manufacture and installation of steel structureIt has gradually formed the industrialization of prefabricated building, light steel structure, aesthetic whole wood customization, high-speed visual perception and high-grade door and window products series development with heavy-duty building steel structure and heavy-duty special steel structure as the leading. The company has the construction engineering construction general contracting special grade, the construction industry (Construction Engineering) class A, the light steel structure engineering design special class A, the steel structure engineering specialized contracting first class, the building curtain wall engineering specialized contracting first class and so on. southeast grid: the company has the grade a design qualification of steel structure, grid frame and related ancillary engineering, and its main products include polyester chips, polyester pre oriented yarn (POY), polyester traction yarn (FDY), etc. The company has an annual production capacity of 460000 tons of steel structure and grid structure, and 6 million square meters of building plate. The company's products radiate all over the country and enter the international market. It has become a professional contractor of steel structure and grid structure engineering with the largest business scale and the widest product market in the same industry in China. Seiko steel structure: the company's main product system includes industrial building system (light steel structure) for light industrial workshop and warehouse, commercial building system for office building, commercial building, civil building (multi-storey heavy steel structure) and public building system (space large-span steel structure products) for airport terminal building, railway station, cultural stadium, etc )。 The company has the first grade qualification of general contracting of construction engineering, the first grade of professional contracting qualification of steel structure engineering, the first grade special qualification of light steel structure engineering design, the special grade qualification of Chinese steel structure manufacturing enterprise, and the qualification of China metal enclosure system contractorQuality certificate. Hangxiao steel structure: the company's main business includes multi-storey and high-rise steel structure, light steel structure, space steel structure, building materials products, professional design, manufacturing, construction (installation) workshop steel structure, multi (super) high-rise steel structure, large-span space steel structure, steel structure residence, green building materials. The company has the first grade qualification for general contracting of housing construction engineering, grade B qualification for engineering design in construction industry, grade I qualification for professional contracting of steel structure engineering, qualification for Chinese steel structure manufacturing enterprise (special grade), class a qualification for light steel structure engineering design and grade I qualification for special construction of steel structure.